Chemical industry weaker and stronger

In the first quarter, the export growth of the chemical industry was good in the absence of strong domestic demand. Companies have increased their efforts in the development of the international market, and have done everything possible to expand the sales of their products. They have actively and actively adapted to the “new normal”.

In the first quarter of 2015, the China Chemical Industry Business Climate Index was 97.6, down 1.2 points from the previous quarter, and the early warning index was 70, down by 13 points. Compared with the previous quarters, the adjustment rate of the industry's downturn in this quarter was significantly increased. The operating pattern further deepens.

On the macro level, the domestic economy is facing greater downward pressure and the demand is further slowed down, which is the main reason that has led to the worsening of the downturn in the chemical industry. In the first quarter of this year, the domestic economic growth rate fell to 7%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous quarter. The growth of real estate investment closely related to the industry continues to slow down. The area and area under new construction have fallen drastically. The growth rate of production of major downstream industrial products such as building materials, smelting, household appliances and automobiles has declined at different levels, all of which have a great impact on industry demand. .

Reflected in price and income, the domestic chemical industry's ex-factory prices continued to decline in the first quarter, a 2.8-percentage-point increase over the previous quarter. The year-over-year growth rate of the industry's main business revenue fell 6.3 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating that the first quarter of the chemical industry The growth of total demand continued to fall rapidly. According to our statistics for the Statistics Bureau, the total production of major chemicals in China increased by approximately 7.5% in the first two months of this year, which was similar to that of the same period of last year. However, the total apparent consumption of major chemicals increased by approximately 5.4% over the same period, down 2.1 times year-on-year. The percentage point is obviously lower than the increase in output.

In the absence of strong domestic demand, exports of the chemical industry grew well in the first quarter. The index report shows that in the first quarter, the chemical industry's exports increased by 15% year-on-year, 3.1 percentage points higher than the fourth quarter of last year, the fastest growth rate since 2012, and much higher than the growth rate of revenue during the same period. Looking further at historical data, the growth rate of the chemical industry's export growth has continued to show an accelerating trend in the past two years, and the proportion of its revenue has continued to rise, which has played a positive role in relieving the downward pressure on the industry.

In the past two years, the export of the chemical industry has grown in a contrarian fashion. With the increase in domestic supply and the limited market, companies in the industry have stepped up efforts to develop the international market and have made great efforts to expand the market of products. It can be said that it is an initiative and can also be It is the market that is forced. This reflects the current industry dilemma, the enterprise's active role as the initiative to adapt to the "new normal" efforts.

Changes in other operational indicators also reflect that the current chemical industry is accelerating adjustments and efforts to adapt to the "new normal" of the economy and industry development. After a few quarters of decline in fixed asset investment growth, a slight stabilization in the fourth quarter of last year, the first quarter of this year, the growth rate fell again to 6%, the number of planned investment in the industry even years of negative growth has not seen years, reflecting the business and In the past, investment has obviously become more cautious. This will have a good effect on resolving the contradiction of overcapacity and improving the balance between supply and demand in the later period; in addition, the production and composition index of the chemical industry will decline again in the first quarter, and some enterprises will produce controlled operations and take the initiative. Reducing the load on the plant or shutting down the capacity with poor marginal efficiency will play a positive role in alleviating the pressure on the stock.

Overall, the first quarter of the chemical industry profit growth rebounded after falling for four consecutive quarters, although the recovery is modest, but it has shown signs of positive stabilization. In the later period, with the display of a series of stable growth policies and the gradual implementation of the “One Belt, One Road” and Beijing-Tianjin-wing integration strategy, the domestic economy is expected to gradually stabilize and the chemical industry's economic operation is expected to stabilize.

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